后中等收入经济体的对外开放——国际经验对中国的启示

　　作者：邹静娴 张斌

　　内容提要：在经历了三十余年的高速经济增长后，以人均GDP衡量，中国已经步入后中等收入阶段。在下一步由中高收入阶段迈向高收入阶段的过程中，我们希望从国际经验中总结一些规律性事实。本文按照不同国家在中等收入阶段停留的时间长短，把国家分为三类（前沿国家，赶超成功国家，赶超失败国家），然后分别从外贸、投资、汇率制度和资本账户开放等多维度进行比较。结果显示，赶超成功国家有效地缩小了与前沿国家的差距，而赶超失败国家却在某些方面出现了赶超的停滞。从机制上看，对外开放政策的好处在于它鼓励了市场竞争，提高了要素全球配置的效率，同时促进了产业升级和结构转型。此外，适当的汇率制度以及审慎的资本账户开放政策对于维持宏观环境的稳定有着重要作用。

　　关键词：后中等收入阶段 中等收入陷阱 开放政策 国际经验

　　Opening-up in the Upper Middle-Income Phase — Implications from International Experiences

　　Zou Jingxian and Zhang Bin

　　After expanding rapidly for more than thirty years, China has stepped into the upper middle-income phase in terms of per capita GDP. Now the country can draw from international experiences to help it transition from the upper middle-income to the high-income phase. Classifying countries into three groups (i.e. frontier, successful catch-ups and failed catch-ups) in accordance with the durations they stay in the middle-income stage, this article compares those three groups from the aspects of foreign trade, investment, exchange rate regime and capital account openness, and finds that the successful catch-ups have managed to narrow their gaps with frontiers, while failed catch-ups have remained at the bottom or even stagnant in some aspects. The article argues that opening-up policies are beneficial since they encourage market competition, improve the efficiency of global resource allocation, and boost industrial upgrading and structural transformation; meanwhile, a proper exchange rate regime and prudent capital account opening-up are key to ensuring a country’s macroeconomic stability.

　　全球经济与中国经济：新周期还是旧周期？

　　作者：程实 张明 陈兴动 朱海斌 张斌　钟正生 殷剑峰 肖立晟 姚枝仲 徐奇渊 吴庆

　　编者按：2018年1月5日，由中国世界经济学会、《国际经济评论》编辑部举办的“全球经济与中国经济：新周期还是旧周期？”主题研讨会在北京举行。与会专家围绕全球经济和中国经济两个议题进行了热烈的讨论。现刊出经发言者本人审定的观点。

　　World Economy and China’s Economy: New or Old Cycle?

　　Cheng Shi, Zhang Ming, Chen Xingdong, Zhu Haibin, Zhang Bin,　Zhong Zhengsheng, Yin Jianfeng, Xiao Lisheng, Yao Zhizhong, Xu Qiyuan and Wu Qing

　　The China Society of World Economics and the editorial board of the International Economic Review journal co-organized a symposium themed World Economy and China’s Economy: New or Old Cycle? on January 5 in Beijing. Renowned economics scholars and experts participated in the meeting and discussed topics related to world economy and the Chinese economy. Their views, after being approved by themselves, are published in this journal.

　　人民币国际化的成功标志及其可行路径—— 一个“有保有压”具有中国特色的推进策略

　　作者：刘建丰 潘英丽

　　内容提要：人民币国际化是一个系统工程。什么是“好的人民币国际化”？本文认为，人民币国际化推进过程是否取得成功的标志：一是在推进的每一个步骤中，人民币汇率定价权是否由中国在岸市场上中资金融机构主导，而非由离岸市场上其他性质的国际金融机构左右；并且央行能否对市场汇率走势保持低成本的影响力；二是中国持有的境外人民币直接计价资产的收益率能否超过在岸市场的同类资产收益率，或者至少持久稳定地为正收益。人民币国际化推进的潜在目标国应以富资源国和东南亚及中亚“一带一路”沿线国家为主。我们可在这些国家力推原油与矿石等大宗商品的人民币直接计价和结算；进行更多的净收益超过国内水平的人民币境外直接投融资；协助建立和发展更多的产品面向全球市场、部分返销中国市场，并以人民币计价和结算的加工贸易产业园区；同时在中国境内加快培育和发展具有广度和深度的、安全性和流动性良好的国债和准国债市场，并适时有序地对外开放。为此，本文提出了一个“有保有压”具有中国特色的货币国际化推进策略。

　　关键词：人民币国际化 离岸人民币产业园区 封闭式跨境人民币交易网络

　　RMB Internationalization: A Strategy with Chinese Characteristics

　　Liu Jianfeng and Pan Yingli

　　RMB internationalization is a systematic program. What is a “high-quality RMB internationalization”? This article argues that indications of successful RMB internationalization go as follows: First, during each step of the process, whether the RMB exchange rate is dominated by Chinese-funded financial institutions in the onshore market rather than by other types of international financial institutions in the offshore market; and whether the central bank can maintain a low-cost influence on the market exchange rate’s movements; second, whether the rate of return of the China-held RMB-denominated assets issued by other countries exceeds the yield of similar assets in the onshore market, or at least the rate of return can be kept positive, stable and sustainable. The potential target countries for promoting RMB internationalization should mainly be countries with rich resources, Southeast Asian nations, and Central Asian countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative. We can encourage those countries to directly use RMB for pricing and settlement of commodities, such as crude oil and ores, carry out more RMB-denominated outbound direct investment and financing with higher net yields than in the domestic market, and help them establish and develop more processing trade industrial parks, where the manufactured products will be sold to other countries, including China, using RMB for pricing and settlement; at the same time, we should speed up cultivation and development of treasury bond and quasi-government bond markets with large scale, high sophistication, good safety and ample liquidity, which should be opened to the outside world at an appropriate time and in an orderly way. To that end, this article proposes a strategy with Chinese characteristics for promoting RMB internationalization that adjusts the tempo of the process in accordance with changing situation.