特朗普税改：两减一改、三大新税种和对美国经济的影响

【作者】余永定

【导读】2017年12月22日，经美国总统特朗普签署，美国《减税和就业法案》完成立法程序。中国学界对美国政府推行特朗普声称的美国“历史上最大规模减税”的决断印象深刻，并给予了积极评价。然而，我们对美国税改的认识还是粗浅和不准确的。

　　本文的目的是提供一份关于美国税改的比较翔实和准确的介绍, 并解释采纳相应税改措施的原由。本文主要讨论美国公司税的税改问题。美国公司税税改包括三个主要部分。第一部分是公司所得税由35%到21%的大幅下调。对此，中国经济学家十分关注，但遗憾的是，他们往往满足于把美国税改理解为公司所得税减税。第二部分是美国由全球征税制到属地征税制的转变。这种转变是美国税改的一个关键部分。第三部分是设立了一些新税种，以回应过渡到属地制所带来的新问题。在这些新税种中，最重要者有三：全球低税无形收入税、海外无形收入税和税基侵蚀税。本文对这些税种的征收、功能以及它们对美国经济的影响做了详细解释。

　　在对美国新税制的作用和功能有了较好了解的基础上，本文作出的结论是：虽然税改对美国经济增长起到一定提振作用，但这种作用是有限的。首先，美国经济目前处于充分就业状态，减税导致的消费和投资的增加难以使经济增长速度的显著增加。其次，减税导致公共债务的增加，而公共债务的增加必将影响美国经济增速的增加。税改对美国国际收支平衡的影响具有很大不确定性。因此，美元未来既可能升值也可能贬值。虽然中国应该密切关注美国税改的短期和长期影响，但是也不应过于夸大其对美国经济和中国经济的影响。中国还是应该根据国内、外经济的大局进行宏观调控，根据自己的时间表推进改革（包括税制改革）的各项进程。

【关键词】特朗普税改 新税制 税制改革

　　Trump’s Tax Reform Explained

　　Yu Yongding

　　US President Donald Trump signed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act into a law on December 22 2017. Chinese academic circles are impressed by the US government’s determination in pushing through what the president called the largest tax cut in the history of the United States, and responded to the tax reform very positively. However, generally speaking, Chinese scholars’ knowledge of the US tax reform is rather sketchy and imprecise.

　　This article is aimed to depict a more detailed and accurate picture of the US tax reform and explain the underlying causes for the reform measures. Because the 70,000-page US tax code is extremely complicated, the article has to be focused on corporate tax reform, which contains three main elements. The first is a sweeping cut of corporate income tax from 35% to 21%, which is what Chinese economists are concerned most about. Unfortunately, many Chinese economists have taken the tax cuts as an equivalent to the US’ tax reform. The second is the switching from a worldwide taxation system to a territorial one, which is a key component of the tax reform. The third is to create some new types of taxes, in response to the new situation under a territorial system. Among them are tax on global intangible low-taxed income (GILTI), tax on foreign-derived intangible income (FDII), and base erosion and anti-abuse tax (BEAT). The article explains in details how those taxes are collected and what are their functions as well as their impacts on the US economy.

　　Based on a better understanding of the working and functions of the US’ new taxation system, the article concludes that although the tax cuts will boost US’ economic growth, its growth-boosting effect will be limited due to the fact that the US economy currently is growing at full capacity and the US’ public debt will increase materially as a result of the tax cuts. The impact of the tax reform on US international balance of payments is not clear-cut, and hence the dollar can either rise or fall in the future. Although China should pay close attention to the impacts of the US’ tax cuts both in the short and longer run, it should avoid over-exaggerating the impact of the tax reform on both the US economy and the Chinese economy. China should implement its macroeconomic policies in accordance with domestic and international situation and carry out institutional reforms, including reform of its tax system, based on its own agenda.

特朗普税改“冲击波”：经济影响与政策应对

【作者】郑联盛 陈旭

【导读】特朗普政府的税改是美国政府1986年以来最为重要的一次税收改革，其核心内容是降低企业所得税，提高美国企业国际竞争力。特朗普税改具有促进再工业化、缓释政治压力、夯实复苏基础等重要背景，税改从简化税制、降低企业税负和保障家庭收入等领域实施。企业所得税税率从35%下调至21%，对于美国大型跨国公司具有最大的政策红利。特朗普税改对于经济增长具有一定的积极作用，但是，对于财政赤字和公共债务的影响整体是负面的，未来将在预算和公共债务上限等方面遭遇多重压力。特朗普减税叠加美联储加息、缩表将对世界经济造成新的外溢效应，可能对直接投资、国际资本流动以及税收安排等造成明显影响，对于中国的直接投资、资本流动、汇率稳定、外储安全、金融稳定以及国际竞争力等产生显著影响。反思中国企业税负相对较高的内在根源，审视中国以企业税为支撑的税收收入体系，构建现代财税体系，并全面深化经济体制改革，以市场化改革来缓释外部冲击可能是最优的政策选择。

【关键词】税收改革 企业所得税 外溢效应

　　US’ Tax Reform: Economic Impact and Countermeasures

　　Zheng Liansheng and Chen Xu 26

　　The tax reform of the Donald Trump administration is one of the most important tax reforms of the US government since 1986. The core objective of the tax reform is to reduce corporate income taxes and improve the international competitiveness of US companies. The Trump tax reform aims to promote re-industrialization, ease political pressure and consolidate the foundation for sustainable economic recovery. It is implemented by carrying reform to simplify the tax system, lower corporate tax burdens, and ensure household incomes. The corporate income tax rate was reduced from 35% to 21%, which has the largest policy dividend for large US multinationals. The Trump tax reform has a positive effect on economic growth. However, its overall impact on fiscal deficits and public debt is negative. In the future, the Trump administration will face significant pressure from fiscal budget and public debt ceilings. The tax cut, together with the Fed’s interest rate hikes and balance sheet contraction, will produce new spillover effects on the world economy. It may have a significant and complicated impact on China’s direct investment, capital flows, exchange rate stability, foreign exchange reserve security, financial stability and international competitiveness. It may be the optimal policy for China to rethink the intrinsic root causes of the relatively high tax burdens of its enterprises, review its tax revenue system that is supported by corporate taxes, build a modern fiscal system, and comprehensively deepen economic and financial system reforms to use market-oriented reforms to mitigate external shocks.

里根与特朗普税制改革的比较分析及对中国的启示

【作者】杨志勇

【导读】2017年12月22日，特朗普签署《减税与就业法》，美国税制改革方案终于落地。这一以“减税”名义出台的改革方案的实质是什么？1980年代，里根总统进行过两次税制改革，改革也是以“减税”的名义进行的。里根和特朗普的税制改革有什么不一样，各自能实现什么样的不同目标？里根税制改革促进了无通货膨胀下的经济增长和充分就业目标的实现，所确立的宽税基、低税率、简税制的税改做法引领世界税制改革。里根税制改革更多是从国内因素出发的；特朗普税制改革中“美国优先”的说法明显考虑了国际竞争因素。特朗普税制改革的国内减税力度总体较大，必须引起注意。里根和特朗普税制改革都特别注意改革的协调配套。中国应在全面深化改革中，找好税制改革的合理定位，以全面减税加以应对，促进对中国有利的国际税收秩序的形成。

【关键词】税制改革 里根税改 特朗普税改 中国税制改革 比较税制

　　Tax Reform of Reagan and Trump: a Comparative Study and Implications for China

　　Yang Zhiyong

　　US President Donald Trump signed into law the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) on December 22, 2017. The reform has been regarded as a tax reduction reform. What are the differences between Trump’s tax reform and Reagan’s tax reduction reform in the 1980s? The Reagan reform helped meet the target of economic growth, full employment and low inflation and the practices of broadening tax base, cutting tax rates and simplifying tax systems had guided the global tax reform at that time. Reagan’s tax reform is more oriented to domestic considerations. The Trump administration claimed that the reform targeted the domestic economy, but the slogan of “America First” obviously refers to international competition. The Trump administration’s overall tax reduction is steep and must not be neglected. Both the Reagan administration and the Trump administration pay special attention to coordination of reforms. China should comprehensively deepen its reforms and properly implement tax reform and reduce tax rates across-the-board to promote the formation of a new international tax order that benefits China.

美国对华经贸政策转变与两国贸易战风险上升

【作者】卢锋 李双双

【导读】特朗普主政第一年中美经贸关系虽维持大体平稳走势，然而美国政策朝加强战略博弈方向调整，两国经贸关系暗流涌动张力不减。尤其是2017年底以来美国官方一系列组合政策信息，显示其强鹰派的对华经贸政策调整布局已大体完成。2017年美国对华贸易争端立案数达到历史最高水平，为2018年发起更多贸易摩擦备足了弹药。依据各方面情况观察，2018年中美经贸关系可能会面临更为困难复杂局面，中美贸易摩擦显著增加应是大概率事件。

【关键词】美国对华经贸政策 中美经贸关系 中美贸易战

　　Changing Trade and Economic Policy of the US and Rising Risks of　China-US Trade War

　　Lu Feng and Li Shuangshuang

　　During the first year of the Donald Trump administration, the Sino-US economic and trade relations had been maintained relatively stable. However, the US’ policy has been adjusted toward putting more emphasis on strategic competition with China in the area of trade and economy. As a result, bilateral economic and trade relations have become more strained. The new round of hawkish reorientation of the US economic and trade relationship toward China has been largely completed by the end of 2017. The number of China-US trade disputes initiated by the US also reached a new high in history last year. Based on observations from various perspectives, the article argues that the Sino-US economic and trade relations may face a more difficult and complex situation.