【英文标题】Analysis on China's Provincial Population Migration and Its Impact on Regional Economic Development

　　【作者简介】于潇，李袁园，吉林大学 东北亚研究中心，吉林 长春 130012；

　　雷峻一，云南财经大学 金融学院，云南 昆明 650221

　　于潇(1968-)，男，吉林四平人，吉林大学东北亚研究院院长，吉林大学东北亚研究中心教授，博士生导师。

　　李袁园(1983-)，女，内蒙古海拉尔人，吉林大学东北亚研究院博士研究生。

　　雷峻一(1990-)，男，吉林长春人，云南财经大学金融学院学生。

　　【内容提要】改革开放后，我国放开了对人口迁移流动的管制，跨省区的人口迁移逐渐活跃起来，人口迁移对经济的影响作用也开始凸显。因此，国家越来越重视迁移人口的问题。在第五次人口普查中，流动人口首次成为主要普查的项目。目前，第六次人口普查的数据也已经公布。为此，本文以两次人口普查数据为依据，首先分析了我国目前迁移人口特征的变化，确定了新的人口迁移中心；此外，通过灰色关联度分析，证明迁入人口数和就业人数与经济总量之间存在较强的相关关系。

　　Because of the reform and opening up, china let go the strict restrictions on the migration flows, then inter-provincial migration gradually warmed up, and the migratory effects of population on economy are also beginning to be highlighted. Therefore, our country has paid more attention to problems of population migration. In the fifth population census, the floating population became the major survey of project for the first time, and the sixth population census data has already been reported recently. So this paper analyzed current characteristics changes about migration of population based on these two census data, and determined the new centre of population migration. In addition, through grey correlation analysis, it proved the correlativity among the scale of immigration, employment and economic aggregation.

　　【日 期】2012-09-26

　　【关键词】迁移人口/迁移中心/区域经济发展/灰色关联分析migration of population/migratory traits/migratory centre/grey correlation analysis